Last Updated on Feb 28, 2016
The implications of the attack are far more important than its perpetrator(s).
On the evening of February 17th, 2016, a car bomb exploded during the rush hour at the political and bureaucratic center of Ankara, behind the headquarters of Turkish Air Forces. The attack killed 28 people, most of whom were soldiers and bureaucrats on their way home at the end of the work day. Turkish Prime Minister Davutoglu disclosed the perpetrator as a 24-year-old Syrian YPG member. Two days layer, a PKK-related organization TAK claimed the attack though the name they gave as the attacker did not match the name Davutoglu publicized. On February 23, DNA test conducted by the forensics confirmed the identity of the attacker as the one TAK declared. Thus, culprit behind the attack remained uncertain for a week. We may never know all of the groups or entities involved this bloody attack but the implications of this attack and the ensuing uncertainty are far more telling than the identity of the attacker.
But first, it is important to look back on how this uncertainty came about.
- One day after the attack, Turkish Prime Minister pointed to YPG as the perpetrator[1].
- Cemil Bayik, leader of the PKK umbrella organization KCK (Group of Communities of Kurdistan), implicitly endorsed the attack, although he said that he did not know who was behind it[2].
- PYD/YPG leader Salih Muslim denied responsibility for the attack[3].
- Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs convened the ambassadors of the P5, Germany, Netherlands and the EU to provide them the evidence that linked the attack to YPG, in an attempt to convince the international public that YPG is indeed a terrorist organization[4].
- USA stated that they were not convinced by the evidence[5] and that their position on YPG, which Spokesperson of the US Department of State defined as brave Kurds fighting ISIS, has not changed[6]. PYD/YPG are not terrorist organizations for the US.
- Editor-in-chief of Hurriyet Daily News, Murat Yetkin, penned a column in Turkish internet-daily Radikal, indicating that Turkish official security sources consider the Russian-backed Assad regime to be behind the attack. According to Yetkin’s sources, Turkish Air Forces was the prime target and the attack was a retaliation for the downing of the Russian jet on November 24, 2015[7].
- Amid the spat between Turkish and US officials on YPG, a Kurdish terrorist organization formed by the militants who left PKK, TAK, claimed responsibility for the attack. However, they provided a different name for the attacker than the one Prime Minister Davutoglu disclosed[8].
- DNA test by forensics determined the identity of the attacker as the one TAK declared[9].
Each of the aforementioned actors may be lying or telling the truth. The real perpetrator(s), if they were different than the one Prime Minister Davutoglu stated or different than the organization that claimed the attack, may never be revealed to the public. However, the attack and the ensuing uncertainty about its culprit imply that:
- Turkish involvement in the Syrian civil war is claiming lives of the civilians on a regular basis.
This is the 4th Syria-related major suicide attack targeting Turkish citizens within last 8 months[10]. Death toll of these 4 major attacks is 173, which is unacceptable for most of the Turkish citizens.
- The list of entities that could retaliate against Turkey is growing.
While Turkey opted for active involvement in the Syrian civil war to increase its influence in the region, within 5 years it appears Turkey has made more enemies than friends; at the same time damaging relations with its long-time allies. Turkey has now become susceptible to any kind of attacks from Russia, Assad regime, PKK-YPG, TAK, ISIS, Hezbollah[11] and other extremist groups operating in Syria. These attacks are not limited to military sector. Turkey is now facing an economic war with Russia, as well as having to deal with high-level political attacks at the UN Security Council[12].
To make things worse, Turkey now cannot easily count on its traditional allies, the USA and NATO members, as there are deep disagreements, which often lead to spats between statespeople, about who to support and how to act in Syria. To compensate for these troublesome alliances, Turkey is seeking to form new military alliances in the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE, which does not seem very stable on its own even in the eyes of Turkish policy-makers[13].
- Most of the Turkish public is feeling unsafe.
Terrorist attacks carry two kinds of messages; a general and a specific one. The general message aims to demonstrate to the public that their state is unable to protect its citizens, thereby creating an aura of panic, insecurity and mistrust between the state and the citizens. The specific message pertains to the relations between the state and the perpetrator. It may be a retaliation for a previous crack-down, a statement or expression of a particular demand.
After the attack, both the TV pundits and social media users began raising their suspicions about a security weakness in the Turkish security institutions, putting forward that the area of the attack, which hosts the Parliament, Military HQs, and the Ministry of Interior, should be the most secure place in the country.
The security institutions face a predicament here. They are often judged by their failures not by their successes. Although Turkish security forces prevent numbers of attacks on a daily basis, the ones that slip through their radar for various reasons raise issues about their resoluteness.
More importantly, the current aura of insecurity is likely to imply a public discontent about Turkish foreign policy in Syria.
[1] Turkey blames Kurdish militants for Ankara car bombing http://apne.ws/1TsA9hj
[2] Cemil Bayık: Ankara’daki eylem misilleme olabilir http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/haber/cemil-bayik-ankaradaki-eylem-misilleme-olabilir
[3] Syrian Kurdish PYD head denies responsibility for Ankara attack http://reut.rs/1mJn8lu
[4] Turkey blames Kurdish militants for Ankara car bombing http://apne.ws/1TsA9hj
[5] Rhodes: Biz failleri tespit edemedik http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/haber/rhodes-biz-failleri-tespit-edemedik
[6] ABD’den Ankara saldırısı sonrası YPG açıklaması: Pozisyonumuz aynı – http://www.radikal.com.tr/dunya/abdden-ankara-saldirisi-sonrasi-ypg-aciklamasi-pozisyonumuz-ayni-1513642//
[7] Hedef Hava Kuvvetleri’miydi? – http://www.radikal.com.tr/yazarlar/murat_yetkin/hedef-hava-kuvvetlerimiydi-1513142
[8] Ankara saldırısını TAK üstlendi – http://www.radikal.com.tr/turkiye/ankara-saldirisini-tak-ustlendi-1514200//
[9]BBC Türkçe – ‘Ankara saldırısını gerçekleştirenin kimliği kesinleşti’ http://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2016/02/160223_ankara_saldiri_kimlik
[10] For a complete list of terrorist attacks against civilians in Turkey in the last 12 months see: A list of deadly attacks in Turkey over the past year http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/a-timeline-of-bomb-attacks-in-turkey-between-2015-2016-a6879841.html
[11] The Latest: Hezbollah leader slams Turkey, Saudi Arabia http://apne.ws/1QpUL3l
[12] BMGK: “Türkiye’nin PYD’yi bombalamasından endişe duyuyoruz” http://www.cnnturk.com/dunya/bmgk-turkiyenin-pydyi-bombalamasindan-endise-duyuyoruz
[13] Çavuşoğlu: Kara operasyonunda mutabakat http://www.aljazeera.com.tr/haber/cavusoglu-kara-operasyonunda-mutabakat
Emre Baran 