Complexity Theory: Quantum Physics meets International Relations

Recently, I have been introduced to a new approach in International Relations: “Complexity Theory”. Inspired by the non-linear causation of the quantum physics, complexity theory seems to have some power in explaining change in international politics by emphasizing on “unintended consequences” and “unplanned interactions”. The theory makes a case for the unpredictability of human interactions, and assumes that “uncertainty is the norm and apprehension the mood” in global politics (Rosenau quoted in Kavalski 2007: 443). It  takes the international as complex systems and analyzes it through a variety of concepts such as “emergence”, “self-organization” and  “feedback”.

Just like quantum physics that strive to come up with a theory of everything, Complexity Theory forces us to think whether such theory could be possible in IR by highlighting interconnections in the “international life”. Also, its terminology, which includes phrases such as  “expecting unanticipated consequences” provokes some thought exercises.

According to its proponents, the theory is becoming more relevant as the number of actors and interactions between them has been proliferating for the last couple of decades. And the literature on complexity has been growing for the last ten years.

I think that using the complexity theory can help us discern the seemingly insignificant events that have led to path-breaking consequences as well as the networks that cause this exponential effect. Thus, it becomes possible to account for human agency without overemphasizing the determining power of structures or resorting to conspiracy theories.

The 2007 article below summarizes the theory for those who might be interested.

Kavalski, Emilian. “The fifth debate and the emergence of complex international relations theory: notes on the application of complexity theory to the study of international life.” Cambridge Review of International Affairs 20.3 (2007): 435-454.

Can international relations survive without theories?

As I returned to my academic studies after a 4-year break, I believe it is time to ask age-old questions and reach at conclusions that leave you hanging. Social sciences, anyone?

Recently, I began re-reading some graduate-level textbooks on IR theories, right from the beginning. As any good book, my IR textbooks begin with a chapter penned for convincing the reader that the book is talking about something worth listening to. And this translates into that International Relations discipline would shatter without IR theories. Well, IR (in capital letters, the academic discipline) would probably collapse instantly if we removed the theories but would international relations (the daily conduct of world politics) survive or even care about such a catastrophe?

For Steve Smith, IR theories fill the knowledge gaps. He starts out with the premise that even the decision makers in international relations sometimes don’t know the reasons behind the things they do. He says theories help us stuff these voids[1]. Therefore I understand that theories are for academic purposes only; they help the researcher make sense of an event, even when its culprits are not sure what they are doing.

However, I am quite sure that leaders do know what they are doing even if their course of action might be against our common sense. And on that knowledge gap, after spending some years as a part of state machinery, I have seen that decision-makers are daily supplied with a wide spectrum of expertise information, which usually cover most of the aspects of a given issue. For example, when Turkish president intends to visit a foreign country, he is provided with a quasi-encyclopedic booklet that covers bilateral political, economic, cultural, and societal relations as well as other issues Turkey wants to have a chat with that country. And occasionally these include classified information that are off limits for a researcher.

Likewise, while a researcher usually confines herself to a particular aspect of an issue, the decision maker is legally responsible for all related branches. So, is it still possible to talk about a knowledge gap to be filled with a theory on the side of the statespeople? This does not mean that they know everything. Every state keeps secrets and hiding information lies at the heart of diplomacy. But for what they don’t know, they make guesses or issue-based, operative theories such as “if we suggest cooperating on X, they will probably reject because they have other interests in the Y business with Z state.”

All of these up to now, makes me think that IR theories are just for academic purposes. They seem to be created to cover up for the information that the researcher cannot reach but the decision maker already posseses.

But before my professors who taught me IR theory lament the time they spent on me, I need to mention the some of the possible answers from IR literature.

Robert Cox for example, would maintain that the presidential booklet would be rife with implicit theories and value-laden statements about how life and international relations should be.[2]

Booth would argue that IR theories are indeed taken into account by statespeople for guiding their practice. And, he would warn, if these theories are inconsiderate of the wellbeing of individuals, they would open the path for disastrous consequences.[3]

Bilgin and Morton would say that the booklet was probably beefed up with knowledge that had already been produced under the guidance of an implicit or explicit theory.[4]

While writing this post and reading some more at the same time, I realized that the missing information which theory compensates for is not about the trade figures between two countries, number of citizens living in a foreign country nor a classified report about strength of rebel factions in a civil conflict. Rather, it is about the embedded philosophical assumptions[5] that led to compilation of a presidential info-booklet.

Going back to my initial question: can international relations survive without theories? Well probably not. That’s because even before the establishment of the discipline in 1919 and even before there were nations, the inter-city-state/inter-monarch/inter-faith relations were guided by set of ideas on how the world should be and who should get what. That presidential booklet would only reflect a fraction of these guiding ideas.

Yet, would it survive if we stopped studying these theories? That question begs for further research and thinking.

[1] Smith, Steve. “Introduction: Diversity and Disciplinarity in International Relations.” International Relations Theories: Discipline and Diversity. Ed. Timothy Dunne, Milja Kurki, and Steve Smith. Oxford: Oxford UP, 2013. 1-13.

[2] Cox, Robert W. “Social Forces States and World Orders: Beyond International Relations Theory.” Millenium: Journal of International Studies 10.2 (1981): 126-55

[3] Booth, Ken. “Human wrongs and international relations.” International Affairs (Royal Institute of International Affairs 1944-) (1995): 103-126.

[4] Bilgin, Pinar, and Adam David Morton. “Historicising representations of’failed states’: beyond the cold-war annexation of the social sciences?.” Third World Quarterly 23.1 (2002): 55-80.

[5] Hedley Bull (1973: 183-4) is quoted for this argument in Burchill, Scott, and Andrew Linklater. “Introduction.” Theories of International Relations. By Scott Burchill et al. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009. 1-30.

Some Vocabulary for Studying Mass Killings of Human Beings

World history is rife with massacres, slaughters, ethnic cleansings and genocides. Within the scope of a graduate course I am taking on diplomatic history, I have been reading on mass deportations and massacres for the past few week. My reading process unfortunately coincided with the Beirut and Paris attacks.

How one names an event of mass killing depends on the political stance of that particular person. But the way the event is named does not change the fact that scores of people had been slaughtered under a political agenda.

Every specific issue entails a specific set of vocabulary. Below are some words that are frequently used while describing the atrocious processes of mass killing of human beings:

contemptuous: manifesting, feeling, or expressing deep hatred or disapproval.

to obliterateto remove utterly from recognition or memory; to remove from existence;   destroy utterly all trace, indication, or significance of.

to abet: to help, encourage, or support someone in a criminal act.

to emaciate:  to cause to lose flesh so as to become very thin.

dilapidated: decayed, deteriorated, or fallen into partial ruin especially through neglect or misuse;  in very bad condition because of age or lack of care.

travailwork especially of a painful or laborious nature: a physical or mental exertion or piece of work; agony, torment.

stench: a very bad smell

Note: All definitions are taken from Merriam-Webster online dictionary @ http://www.merriam-webster.com/

Positivism and Postpositivism or Inquiries on the Observable Universe

Once again, I am paying a visit to the two old schadenfreude in International Relations; positivism and postpositivism. To briefly introduce them, it would suffice to say that positivism strives for revealing timeless laws in international affairs, and postpositivism defends a more context-based approach, aiming to situate developments in time and place, along with the ideas behind them. So while positivism seems like a strict father who rejects everything that is not “his way”, postpositivism looks more like the wise person who would sincerely listen and try to understand if you opened up to (the intrinsic relationship between masculinity and positivism is indeed a classic feminist argument).

Yet, I have a question to the people who have been there with these two fellows. One of the classic textbooks for graduate-level IR theory courses maintain that positivists dig out causal relationships by observing behavior and unearthing repeated patterns. Thus, the book continues, “unobservable entities such as discourses or social structures” remain out of their agenda.

While I am not concerned with ontological choices of positivism, I am rather curious on why discourses are classified as “unobservable entities”. Can we not feel the existence of racist and sexist discourses with all our senses? Do we not read them, see them, hear them and be exposed to them on a daily basis?

Things I Have Learned While Building a News Archive

As of today, I have been compiling a news archive on world politics for roughly more than a year. What started out between two friends as a curious project spurred by an intrinsic desire to know the buzz of contemporary world politics, evolved into a 200+ pages long searchable archive. I believe the archive requires some trimming and polishing for better versatility, however, it is already useful this way.  Working daily on the same thing for more than a year comes with some perks. Here are what I learned during this process.

  • There is really something called a Great Power

As I have mentioned, our archive is searchable. This means it includes almost all the issues a state has had itself tangled in. It appears that while for example Egypt has a couple of issues going on according to international media, the USA seems to have a say, if not a policy for almost all of the prominent issues that hit the news.  It might be due to my selection bias, or publishing on what Egypt has to say about North Korea might not be making money for news agencies. Yet, even if these are true, I believe defining a state as a Great Power by looking at the number of issues it is involved in makes sense.

  • Too much is going on one day

Even if you confine yourself to headlines, too much is happening in the world daily, for one person to absorb. Looking back, there were weeks I had collected more than 90 pieces within 7 days. It roughly equals to 12 news articles per day; most of them about different parts of the world. It is now clear for me why hard working Foreign Ministers and Heads of States rarely sleep or take a vacation.

  • News get lost on the Internet

Since I went online in 1998, I lived by one code and once code only: what happens on the internet, stays on the internet. Forever! It appears that this is not quite right for news pieces. No, I’m not talking about some shadowy people deleting critical information off the face of the earth. It is the ever-changing URLs that make news disappear, get relocated and lose their credibility. Let me show you what I mean with an example. On May 21st, 2015, The Associated Press published a report entitled “Ukraine lawmakers suspend military cooperation with Russia.” I added this piece, along with its URL to the archive. By then AP was using m.apnews.com/ syntax for mobile news. Yet, they changed it to http://bigstory.ap.org/ and killed all previous links by June 2015. Now if you google the title of the now-lost news article, hoping to get an equally credible source that had published the original AP story, you get exactly the same piece, word-by-word but from the Jakarta Post. Although the Jakarta Post might be doing an awesome coverage of the Ukrainian crisis, I would definitely prefer the original AP link if I were to refer to this piece.

  • Timeless clichés never get old

More than often, analyzing international politics requires in-depth knowledge of a particular event, along with the same intensity of information about other possible issues that the particular development may be related to. It is surely a tough job few can cope with and when this thorough knowledge is lacking, timeless clichés about incognito men pushing the buttons to disrupt a region; states taking the bait and great games in the Middle East fill in the blanks. These are so prevalent that even some of the most renowned analysts throw them in shamelessly.

  • News is just the tip of the iceberg

Speak of the clichés and you will end up using one yourself. However, this time “the tip of the iceberg” really explains something. In the beginning of this endeavor for archiving news on world politics, I thought collecting news would make me feel more knowledgeable about the things going on in the world. But now, a year on and I feel like I have mountains of issues to learn about to reach the standards I set for myself.  For example: I learnt that Turkey had oil extracting agreements for the PKK-held Qandil mountain[1]. Had no idea before. Or, more than often we tend to assume that once a crisis erupts between two states, most of the relations between them are put on hold.  However, Russia and Ukraine have ongoing energy agreements and negotiations on this matter[2] despite Russian involvement in the country.

[1] Türkİye Kandİl’de petrol arayacak – http://ajtr.me/pmkf

[2] ​50,000 Tons of Russian Coal Enter Ukraine http://on.rt.com/QA96LM

My Research Blog

As an international relations professional and an aspiring researcher, I started this blog to track my academic research endeavors and reflect on the things I find notable during my research projects. I will also occasionally share news reports and my personal views on contemporary international developments.